One week out

I'm one week out from my trail race that I've spent the bulk of the summer training for.  To say I'm stoked is an understatement.  I'm in the cut back phase of the program I'm following and I'm feeling pretty good.  

The Stryd application that I've been using for my training is telling me that there is a possibility I could run this in about 48:30.  The last time I ran this course it was 59:12 I believe. So as much as I want to believe that 48:30 time I have my doubts.  I'm the fittest I've been for running.  However I've been training on roads and not trails so I suspect that takes some time into account.  Additionally there is some climbing on it but not a ton.  This time is based on if I can keep my power at 280 watts which is 97% of my critical power (288).  Part of me wants to believe that I can do it but there's also a large part that says I'd better make some adjustments to not go up in flames.  So here's my 3 goals (A,B,C) and how I think I'll race this course.  

A Goal: Just beat 59:12.  This I'm fairly certain is in the bank already.  

B Goal: Go under 55 minutes.  I'd like to think this is on the bag as well but I'm just not sure how the calculation is from my training on the road to racing on the trail. 

C Goal: Go under 50 minutes.  

Power wise in my warm up I'm going to see how I think the start feels at 280 watts.  It's a slight up hill for maybe a quarter of a mile...well a bit longer but I won't warm up the whole distance.  If it feels like to much I'm going to drop my power for the first bit of the race and then I'll go up from there.  At least that's how I'm thinking I'll run it right now...that may change.  I'm going to post in the Stryd Facebook group to see if people have a better idea.  

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